• What do we expect to happen if the current trend continues unchecked?
• Does it represent healthy competition and improve proposal quality?
• Does it unfairly target younger researchers?
• Does it reduce the number of scientists in the field?
• Does it favor large projects over small projects? Is that good or bad?
• Specific Data for No Change

• Is it good for the science?
  • Reduce the diversity of ideas? Stifle risky, but imaginative proposals?
• Would it improve success rates?
• Would it reduce reviewer load?
  • number of proposals per group, per PI, per faculty vs research vs lab
  • Would it create more PIs (proposals) from otherwise collaborating senior researchers?
  • Does it make it even more difficult to decide between a few very excellent must-fund proposals?
• Specific data for Solution 1
• Has this been tried before?
  • Where? How many years?
  • What are the advantages?
  • What are the disadvantages?

• Is it good for the science?
  • Does it create funding gaps for tenure-seeking researchers and thus unfairly target a demographic we want to encourage?
  • Does it create uneven funding levels, loss of resources, lack of continuity in the off years?
• Would it improve success rates?
  • Or create a multitude of poor proposals in the “on” year
  • Or increase funding requested per proposal?
• Would it reduce reviewer load?
  • Or create many more proposals in the “on” year?
  • Specific data for Solution 2
• Has this been tried before?
  • Where? How many years?
  • What are the advantages?
  • What are the disadvantages?

• Should the results of the first-step down-selection be advisory or mandatory?
• Who makes the decisions about multi-step proposals?
• Is it good for the science?
• Would it improve success rates?
• Would it reduce reviewer load?
• Has this been tried before?
  • Where? How many years?
  • What are the advantages?
  • What are the disadvantages?

• Who is writing the proposals?
  • PI position: e.g. postdoc, assist. Prof, assoc. Prof, tenured faculty, research faculty, Gender, race/ethnicity, geographical location, size of institution
• How many proposals submitted by same PI (broken down by PI category)
• Number of senior researchers on proposal
  • per year, per category of PI, per funding requested
• Compare success rates of different sorts of proposals
  • per PI category, per number of senior researchers, per number of proposals submitted in the last 5 years, per funding requested
• Years between proposals
  • cross correlate to success rate, PI category, # of senior researcher
• Do younger researchers rise through the ranks (are researcher on proposal and then become PI later)?
  • Number of years between first appearance as senior researcher on a proposal to PI
  • What number or fraction of the community is supported by soft money?

Nature of community support questions

• What number or fraction of the community is supported by research projects/missions?
• What number or fraction of the community is support by institutions?
• What number or fraction of the community can or does serve as PI?
• What number or fraction of the community is part of a smaller groups (1-3) vs larger groups?

• Are there other sources of scientific support for the community?
• How much of the science support for the community comes through missions or other stable sources relative to competed 3-year proposals?
• What fraction of the money for competed research is distributed to various types of institution (labs, universities, centers, industry)?

Individual support questions

• How many grants of typical size are required to support an individual investigator?
• How many sources of support does the typical investigator (PI, CoI, student) rely upon?
• How many investigators/students participate in the average proposal?

Career questions

• How many awards have gone to first-time PIs?
• How much of the typical award supports the PI? CoIs? Students?
• What is the age (in career) distribution of PIs? Proposers?
• What is the age (in career) distribution of the relevant community?

Competition Questions

• What is the boundary between acceptable and unacceptable success rates?
• What factors determine what the acceptable boundary is? (program staff, reviewers, community, fairness, etc.)
• Does the success rate/number of proposals make any difference in program allocations by agencies?

Question for Program Managers

• How many proposals have been reviewed annually for the last 10 years?
• How many proposals have been selected annually for the last 10 year?
• How much money has been awarded annually in the last 10 years for competed research grants?
• What fraction of the total program budget each year has gone to support competed grants?

Questions about Impact on People

• What anecdotal evidence do we have about the impact of funding rates?
• What quantitative information can we find about people entering or leaving the field?
• What are the off-ramps (retirement, leaving the field, working part time, etc.) for each discipline and how many are using them?
• What are the on-ramps (students, from other fields, shifting research focus, etc.) for each discipline and how many are using them?